April 3 - Electoral District Predictions

April 3 Electoral District Predictions

by Nicky Walker-Kobly

I have never been all that creative with titles so it is what it is.

As promised, here are my seat projections and the reasoning behind them for the April 16th election in Alberta. I will update information after the debate as well as one week before the the election.

I have used all recent polling information as well as some that have not been released publicly. I've taken a good look at the election results over the last couple elections, taken into consideration the demographic info available through Stats Can, knowledge of individual candidates, riding histories and just a general understanding of how this shit works. This allows me to do individual district adjustments to account for my predictions.

Enjoy. Feel free to rail and complain. Better still, use it to light a fire under some asses.

Updated - Nobody did anything of substance at the debate. My predictions stay the same.

Electoral District	Notes
Athabasca-Barrhead-Westlock - UCP	Should be an easy pick up for the UCP; while the NDP did take part of this riding it did so with only 40% of the vote and popular candidate Colin Piquette is not seeking re-election.
Bonnyville - Cold Lake - St. Paul - UCP	This should be an easy hold for the UCP as they hold both the seats merged to create this one. The UCP continues to dominate outside of the major cities, however the interesting twist here is that popular St. Paul Mayor Glenn Anderson is running for the AB Party. While it is not likely to have any significant impact it will be interesting to see if the AB Party can gain ground here at all.
Central Peace-Notley - UCP	Made up of the old Dunvegan-Central-Peace-Notley riding; this is not a likely hold for the NDP. Minister McCuaig-Boyd won this seat with 38.44% of the vote in 2015, and despite having the critical Energy portfolio she was not a visible member of cabinet because of her inability to speak 'off-the-cuff'. This will be a pick-up for the UCP
Fort McMurray - Lac La Biche - UCP	This riding was tested in a by-election late last year. The UCP held it with an overwhelming majority. Nothing is likely to change here.
Fort McMurray - Wood Buffalo - UCP	This is an easy hold for Tany Yao. Note I didn't say 'The UCP'. It could have gone way differently. There has been credible source saying consideration given to challenging Tany Yao for the nomination within the UCP party, especially because of his close ties to former WRP Leader Brian Jean. However, there was fear that a move might prompt Brian to step in to run under another banner and bring Tany with him. Still a chance this could happen post-election.
Grande Prairie - Too Close to Call	This is going to be an extremely interesting race. This new riding is a completely urban riding, having been taken from the old Grande Prairie-Smoky riding. The NDP did very well in the urban centre in 2015 coming in a close second to the WRP. The NDP are running a very strong candidate in current Fire Chief Todd Russell. The statistics still favour the UCP but barely, so I would stick with Too Close to Call. Definitely a race to watch .
Grande Prairie-Wapiti - UCP	Unlike a lot of northern seats, this one stayed PC rather then going Wildrose in 2015. This can be 100% attributed to the popularity of former PC/UCP MLA Wayne Drysdale. The Alberta Party also earned nearly 11% here in 2015 due to the popularity of that candidate. While I remain confident this is a UCP hold, it may be close.
Lesser Slave Lake - NDP	This seat is going to be very close, but I think Danielle Larivee will hold. She has been a work horse for the Notley government holding many portfolios. She has also put in a lot of ground work in her community. The NDP's strong focus on Indigenous issues will benefit them here. Larivee took 43% of the vote in 2015, despite the addition of a Liberal and AB Party candidate this time, she will likely absorb some of long serving former MLA Pearl Calahasen's support from 2015.
Peace River - UCP	This should be another UCP pick-up. The vote split here was very pronounced. Frank Oberle was one of the most conservative PC members in caucus during his time which explains why he was able to come a very close second with the WRP a distant third.
Edmonton - City Centre - NDP	Held by longtime Liberal MLA Laurie Blakeman, it was not a huge surprise to see the NDP take it in 2015.  Blakeman ran in 2015 but did some bullshit "I am running for 3 parties" rather than accept the invitations from the NDP. Despite not being their first choice, David Shepherd has made a point of being a highly visible in the constituency and reasonably accessible to his demanding constituents. The Alberta Party has come forward with former Human Rights Tribunal Head Bob Philp but I don't anticipate the NDP losing the seat
Edmonton - Glenora - NDP	Deputy Premier Hoffman was an NDP star candidate going into the 2015 election. She was anticipated to win even before the orange wave swept Premier Notley into power. This is an easy hold for the NDP and her 'sewer rats' comment only solidified her hold here.
Edmonton - Gold Bar - NDP	This was a longtime Liberal fortress dating back to 1986 before David Dorward snuck up the middle for the PC party in 2012. After the retirement of longtime MLA Hugh MacDonald, the retiring MLA picked a weak candidate. And Marlin Schmidt campaigned the hell out of it. Dorward only won with 32% of the vote with a vote split happening between the NDP and Liberals. This vote split was resolved in 2015 when Marlin Schmidt was swept into office with a well-earned 68% of the vote. Marlin will hold this seat easily and may even increase his percentage.
Edmonton - Highlands - Norwood - NDP	This will be the first time since 2000 that Brian Mason's name will not be on the ballot. Before that the seat was held by former NDP Leader Pamela Barett. Brian traditionally got between 50 and 60% of the vote until 2015 when he garnered a staggering 78%. His successor, Janis Irwin is well known in Edmonton and has demonstrated her strength as a candidate in the federal election, garnering one of the best showings in the region for the NDP ever. This should be an easy hold for the NDP
Edmonton-Riverview - NDP	This was a longtime Liberal seat, being held by Linda Sloan and then former Liberal Leader Kevin Taft before being taken by the PC's in 2012 with just 39% of the vote. The NDP took the seat in 2015 with 62%, and it should be an easy hold in 2019.
Edmonton-Strathcona - NDP	The only interesting thing in this race will be whether Premier Notley can beat the 82% she received in 2015. It's interesting to note that Jason Kenney has chosen to run his PC and WRP candidates in this riding. That's how likely he believes his chances are here
Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview - NDP	The NDP took this seat in 2012 despite the centrist vote rallying around then Premier Alison Redford to prevent the WRP from winning. Deron Bilous beat out then PC MLA Tony Vandermeer who had taken the seat from former NDP MLA Ray Martin. Bilous went from 37% in 2012 to 73% in 2015. This should be an easy hold with the NDP's strengthening numbers in Edmonton
Edmonton-Castle Downs - NDP	The UCP is running Ed Ammar here. The Liberal, turned Wildroser turned Alberta Party turned UCP candidate is a perpetual annoying presence on social media. This seat was always a tight one even for former PC Minister Thomas  Lukaszuk, who had to fight hard for votes (lol). The NDP picked it up with 64% in 2015 and will hold it again.
Edmonton-Decore - NDP	Karen Princepe is a strong UCP candidate here who beat out former PC MLA Janice Sarich for the nomination. Sarich was famous for terming a coup attempt meeting against then Premier Redford as a "potluck dinner". The NDP took this seat with 67% and with the consolidation of the centre and left vote around them should hold this. Though Princepe is a strong opponent.
Edmonton - Manning - NDP	This seat see-sawed between the Liberals and PCs for years, with PC Peter Sandhu holding it twice with less then 40% of the vote. Sandhu is said to have been upset with how the federal party handled his desire to run for the feds but there was also a picture of Sandhu with the NDP candidate on election night in 2015. The NDP took it by consolidating the centre and centre-left vote in 2015 and will likely do so again in 2019.
Edmonton-McClung - NDP	This was a longtime Liberal seat held by Nancy MacBeth and Grant Mitchell until the 2000's when it began to flip back and forth between the Liberals and PCs. Beleaguered David Xiao held it for two terms before handing it over to the NDP. The decision of AB Party Leader Stephen Mandel to contest this seat does make it interesting. The consolidation of the vote around the NDP suggests the NDP should hold it, but Mandel's history in the riding could allow him to cause a vote split that lets the UCP take it. Interesting seat to watch.
Edmonton - North West - NDP	Made up of the old Edmonton-Calder seat, it is held by Education Minister David Eggen who took the seat in 2012 with 38.4% of the vote and again in 2015 with 70.7% of the vote. Should be an easy NDP win.
Edmonton West Henday - NDP	Made up of the Edmonton-Meadowlark and Edmonton-Calder seat, which the NDP took with 55% and 70% of the vote respectively in 2015. Should be another easy hold for the NDP. Meadowlark was a Liberal seat held by Karen Leibovici and later PC turned Liberal Raj Sherman.
Edmonton-Ellerslie - NDP	This is an old Liberal seat but it had become a brokered seat until Naresh Bhardwaj got dumped by the PCs. The NDP took it with 61% and should be able to hold it, but Rod Loyola has not been a visible MLA. If there was an upset going to happen in Edmonton this is one of two seats it would likely happen in.
Edmonton-Meadows - NDP	This seat has been an interesting one. It was one of the only contested NDP nominations - incumbent Denise Woolard was dumped by Jasvir Deol. The UCP also courted controversy by dumping the year long nomination race here and appointing Len Rhodes. This seat was held by Liberal turned PC, former Speaker Gene Zwozdesky who passed away early this year. The NDP took it with 55.9% and should hold it. Gene long maintained close ties with the strong Sikh community, which was a strong voting bloc. Had the UCP stuck with a regular nomination process Arundeep Singh Sandhu would have been able to make it a competitive race. The decision to drop Len Rhodes here will likely backfire and secure the NDP vote.
Edmonton - Mill Woods - NDP	A longtime Liberal seat, it was narrowly taken by Carl Benito and then Sohail Quadri in 2008 and 2012. Christina Gray was able to take it in 2015 with 64% of the vote. Should be another hold for the NDP. Interestingly this is the first riding UCP candidate Jackie Lovely ran in. She ran again and again for ridings all over the region until she was finally thrown into a riding this election as a real candidate. Sometimes you gotta fake it til you make it I guess.
Edmonton- Rutherford - NDP	A longtime Liberal seat that Fred Horne managed to win in 2008 and hold in 2012. The NDP took it in 2015 with 63% of the vote. Unless the NDP drops significantly in the Edmonton region this should be an easy hold.
Edmonton - South - NDP	Largely made out of the old Edmonton-South West the NDP managed to take this in 2015 with 53% of the vote. This is a chance for an NDP pick up and they are running NDP MLA Thomas Dang here. Dang is not a high profile MLA but spent a lot of time door knocking and working in the constituency. This is a seat the UCP hopes to pick up but this riding is dominated by community associations and they have just not done the work
Edmonton - South West - NDP	This is going to be one of the closest races in Edmonton but NDP candidate and former CBC journalist John Archer should win. There is a risk of a progressive vote split with former Liberal MLA turned Alberta Party candidate Mo Elsalhy running. But unless the Ab Party picks up any kind of steam , his dent should be minimal, given the Liberal and AB Party took a combined 8% in 2015.  The UCP have a challenge with Alberta Advantage Party Leader Marilyn Burns running, she will likely take 2-4% which gives the NDP a slight margin to work with despite Elsalhy.
Edmonton - Whitemud - NDP	This riding has belong to two former Premiers with Don Getty and Dave Hancock both holding the seat. It was held for a time by the Liberals, but Hancock managed to consolidate the centrist vote. Former Mayor and PC Health Minister turned Alberta Party Leader Stephen Mandel managed to take the seat in a 2014 by-election with only 43% of the vote, losing the the NDP in 2015 when Bob Turner managed to take 57% of the vote. If the NDP were to fall bellow 45% in Edmonton this seat might become competitive. The NDP are running a strong candidate a strong candidate in lawyer Rakhi Pancholi while the UCP are running Conservative Party volunteer and constituency staffer Elisabeth Hughes. There is potential the federal party will take an interest in this seat, as Hughes was the constituency assistant for current MP Matt Jeneroux.
Fort Saskatchewan - Vegreville - Too Close to Call	This is a riding I will be watching closely. It is the kind of riding the NDP have to hold onto but they face some major challenges. Jessica Littlewood is not a strong candidate, and is the only NDP MLA to have a spending scandal with her sky high mileage claims. She only won the seat with 45% which puts her a low for the region as a whole. Her other major challenge is a strong campaign from the Alberta Party candidate Marvin Olsen, who has long ties in Fort Saskatchewan and the strong support of former MLA Jacquie Fenske who lost to Littlewood in 2015. It is not clear if the AB Party support will draw from the NDP vote or if it is consolidating the old PC vote in this riding. The UCP candidate has strong ties in Vegreville but is little known in Fort Sasktchewan. This could lead to a split vote between Littlewood and Olsen that allows the UCP to take the seat.
Leduc-Beaumont - Too Close to Call	Shaye Anderson captured this seat with only 37.8% of the vote in 2015. This should put the seat out of reach but Anderson has been an extremely strong MLA and his role as Minister of Municipal Affairs has allowed him to help Leduc and Beaumont in the last two years. A bitter ugly nomination race for the UCP may leave Brad Rutherford a little weak heading into the election, especially with candidates for both the Alberta Advantage and Freedom Conservatives as an option. If Anderson can consolidate that Alberta Party vote and maintain the progressive PC vote, and if the FCP and AA party take even 5-6% Anderson may be able to hold on. I would say this leans UCP but is to close too call. This UCP candidate has been bragging, like so many others, that he will be given the ministry of justice/Sol Gen. Pretty big claim for an ex-cop who reportedly never finished college.
Morinville-St. Albert - Too Close to Call	Created from a merger of some of Athabasca-Sturgeon Redwater and Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock with a piece of St Albert this is an interesting seat - friction was evident at the Electoral Boundaries Commission hearings from past St. Albert leaders opposing splitting that community, and rural leaders opposing the dilution of their concerns. This could bode negatively for the NDP. With each of its predecessor seats being held by the UCP and NDP.  The NDP may hold a slight advantage in this seat with the redistributed vote. This one will be a nail biter and it will be interesting to see if Alberta Party candidate Neil Korotash plays spoiler.
St. Albert - NDP	Marie Renaud is something of a rebel in the NDP caucus and has not been afraid to speak her mind on issues she is passionate about. She took this suburban riding in 2015 with 54% of the vote. Renaud survived a nomination contest from a fellow NDP MLA. She has been door knocking for much of the past two years. All that considered I give the NDP enough strength to hold the seat.
Sherwood Park - NDP	Sherwood Park was held for many years by former Reeve and PC Cabinet Minister Iris Evans. Despite her strength Iris held out against many strong Liberal challenges which demonstrated at least a strong progressive vote in the community. The NDP took it in 2015 with Annie McKitrick with 52% of the vote against former Mayors Cathy Olesen for the PCs and Linda Osinchuck for the WRP. The UCP candidate was dogged by comments on social media about a "Sovereign" Strathcona County and has been relatively absent from the campaign trail. Advantage NDP.
Strathcona - Sherwood Park - NDP	The NDP are running Crown Prosecutor Moira Vane in this riding after a late decision by former NDP MLA Estafania Cortes-Vargas not to run again. Cortes-Vargas won with only 42% of the vote but spent much of the last 4 years building strong relationships in the community. The UCP are running relative unknown Nate Glubish. The wildcard in this race is former PC MLA and Associate Minister Dave Quest who is running under the Alberta Party banner. Quest will definitely be drawing votes from the centre right and right. His personal relationships will help. The is also been strong undercurrents in Sherwood Park and Strathcona-Sherwood Park that Jason Kenney is not the right choice of leader. This will likely remain a divided right allowing the NDP to go up the middle again.
Spruce Grove-Stoney Plain - Too Close to Call	This seat will be close. Given it is new and took part of two old ridings, I am not sure what to expect here.
Drayton Valley-Devon - UCP	Mark Smith is the current MLA and is seeking a second term. He won as a WRP candidate in a tight three-way race with former Cabinet Minister Diana McQueen and the NDP. This time around the NDP are running Kieran Quirke the Chair of the Leduc-Nisku Economic Development Board. This may turn out to be close, depending if the PC voters who supported McQueen in 2015 are willing to come over to support Smith. It's highly unlikely however with the recent release of Smith's outrageous comments regarding 'LGBTQ Love'. This could be a surprise pick-up for the NDP. The PC vote does not automatically go to the UCP because of their closer alignment with the WRP than the PCs. Update - Kenney has refused to bounce Smith and has further refused to say if he would give Smith the Education portfolio should he make government. Again, I'm not sure this impacts Smith in his riding but it will certainly send ripples throughout Edmonton and Calgary.
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake - UCP	Devin Dreeshen won the seat in a recent by-election with 81% of the votes in a by-election. This is a UCP hold. It should be noted less then half the people who voted in the previous general election voted in the by-election so there is a low probability he wins so decisively in a general, though he will still do well.
Lac Ste. Anne - Parkland - UCP	This redrawn riding elected Oneil Carlier with only 36% of the vote in 2015. George Vanderburg, who came in a close 3rd, was not on the progressive wing of the PC Party and it's likely the WRP/PC vote will easily rally behind the UCP candidate.
Red Deer- South - Too Close to Call	The UCP delayed this nomination because they were supposed to have a star candidate that never materialized. This is going to be a close seat. Barb Miller took it with only 35.9% of the vote but there was a higher then normal AB Party vote and some Liberal and Green. Combined, they had 46% of the vote. The FCP is also running a candidate here which may cut into the UCP vote taking it below 50%. Jason Stephan is the UCP candidate, a tax lawyer by profession and head of the local Taxpayers Association.
Red Deer- North - NDP	Kim Schreiner won this seat with 29% in 2015, which may be the lowest percentage of any MLA. What's also interesting is that this race was a close 4 way with the local Liberal candidate managing a surprising 19.3% of the vote while the WRP got 24.6 and the PC's got 22.7%. The local PC candidate fell on the moderate side of the party and was a popular local councillor. The Alberta Party also managed to secure 4%. This time around there is no Liberal candidate and given polls show the consolidation of the centre-left vote around the NDP, she will likely secure 48.7%. The UCP has a challenge here in that the combined WRP/PC vote was 47.3%, with the AB Party securing 4%. The Freedom Conservatives and the Alberta Independence Party are both running here. If they secure even 2-3% each from the UCP vote this stays NDP. While Red Deer has been hard hit by the oil downturn, its also worth noting the key issue is Infrastructure, specifically the Red Deer Regional Hospital. The NDP have undertaken several major infrastructure projects there on the highway and roadways.
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre - UCP	This race is only interesting because of who is running. Former WRP MLA turned independent Jumping Joe Anglin is running again as the AB Party candidate. This should be an easy win for Nixon.
West Yellowhead - UCP	The NDP won this with only 39% of the vote. This is an easy UCP pick-up.
Camrose - UCP	This is an interesting seat. The UCP candidate only recently moved here after running in Edmonton and Leduc-Beaumont under the WRP banner. This is a riding heavily dominated by an older vote - should be concerned about UCP cuts to senior care and other health strategies. It is also a changed seat, with Camrose being carved out of the old Battle River-Wainwright seat. The Alberta Party is running a Beaver-County Councillor which may carve into the UCP vote a bit by appealing to old PC voters. The decision of the Alberta Advantage, Freedom Conservatives and Alberta Independence Party to run candidates here creates a situation where the UCP vote could be dragged down enough to create an uncertain outcome. For now I am going to call this for the UCP but the candidate will likely continue to be dogged by comments that she has no idea about the riding and had nom irregularities in previous nomination battles.
Drumheller - Stettler - UCP	Rick Strankman's attack on the UCP nomination process and decision to run as an independent could make this an interesting race but ultimately Nate Horner should win by a large margin.
Lacombe- Panoka - UCP	Should be an easy UCP hold.
Maskwacis-Wetaskiwin - Too Close to Call	This will be close. The NDP took 41% of the vote here in 2015 with no Liberal or AB party candidate. While the AB Party is running this time, the candidate has ties to the old PC party. The redrawing of the constituency puts a bigger emphasis on the Indigenous community votes, which Premier Notley has spent 4 years courting heavily. This is one of the few rural seats worth watching. The inclusion of a Alberta Advantage and Freedom Conservative candidate will cause some loss for the UCP vote.
Vermillion-Lloydminster - UCP	Richard Starke held his seat and refused to join the UCP. His personal popularity in the community allowed him to do it. Had he run as an independent again he may have secured the seat again but his decision to retire has all but guaranteed the UCP will take it.
Calgary-Buffalo - NDP	The riding was previously won by Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley but with the boundary redraws the NDP shifted Finance Minister Joe Ceci to the seat. The combined NDP/Liberal vote was well over 50% and with no liberal candidate it should be an easy hold for the NDP
Calgary-Currie - NDP	This was a liberal seat in Calgary under Dave Taylor before being picked up by progressive PC MLA Christine Cusanelli in 2012. The NDP took it from the PCs in 2015 with 39.8% of the vote. While this will be close it should be an NDP hold.
Calgary-Elbow - UCP	Greg Clark won the Alberta Party's first seat here in 2015, unseating unpopular education minister Gordon Dirks. Clark has focused heavily on local issues during his time as an MLA. The UCP is running former leadership candidate Doug Schweitzer who is running a strong campaign. the NDP have also fielded a strong candidate in Janet Eremenko. The combined progressive vote here should be overwhelming but if the NDP picks up any support the vote split may favour the UCP.
Calgary Klein - NDP	It's ironic that UCP leader Jason Kenney holds the Calgary-Lougheed seat, named for one of Alberta's most progressive Premiers and founder of the PC dynasty when Kenney hated his guts. What's more ironic is that the seat named for Alberta's most conservative Premier Ralph Klein is held by the NDP. And its very likely it will remain that way. The combined NDP/Liberal vote was 50.3% with the PC's coming in second and then WRP candidate Jeremy Nixon a distant 3rd. Nixon is now running under the UCP. However the Alberta Party is fielding a strong candidate in leadership candidate Kara Levis, who could play spoiler. This is one to watch closely.
Calgary-Mountain View - NDP	The seat long held by former Liberal Leader and sole liberal MLA David Swann is up for grabs with his decision to retire. This seat has one of the most interesting stand offs in the province. The NDP are fielding Justice Minister Kathleen Ganley. The AB Party is fielding former journalist Angela Kokott, the Liberals are fielding new leader David Khan. While I think some vote splitting will occur between Khan and Kokott I expect that the Justice Minister will be able to thread the needle up the middle to hold the seat, especially with the missteps with two UCP candidates in a row, after Caylan Ford stepped aside over white supremacist remarks, and her replacement got caught up in some comments about wives submitting to their husbands. The UCP had hoped to take advantage of the multi-way split with Ford who was a star candidate and one they hoped could take the seat in a vote split situation.
Calgary-Varsity - NDP	Calgary Varsity has long been seen as a progressive leaning seat after being held for two terms by Liberal MLA Harry Chase. It was taken in 2015 by Minister Stephanie McLean who has decided not to run again this election. McClean was replaced by Anne McGrath one of the architects of Jack Layton's Orange Crush federally and Notley's own breakthrough win in 2015. With no Liberal candidate and with progressive voters showing a consciousness for vote splitting there is a strong chance the NDP hold this seat.
Calgary-Cross - UCP	The combined NDP/Liberal vote was roughly 46% while the combined PC/WRP vote was 51%. However, the PC vote was driven by star PC candidate and former Calgary Police Chief Rick Hanson. This is a possible UCP pick up but its close. Approval for Naheed Nenshi was low here, perhaps suggesting a weaker progressive vote which may hint at conservative support.
Calgary-East - NDP	The NDP won this seat with only 39.2% of the vote. The combined WRP/PC vote was over 54%. With an AB Party candidate, Liberal candidate and Green candidate. However, this riding has show strong support for Naheed Nenshi as Mayor. While Nenshi isn't running, he has worked closely with the NDP for delivery of new transit and transportation infrastructure and generally enjoys strong support from progressive voters. The NDP need to tap into his support base if they hope to make a breakthrough and hold in Calgary. This level of support for Nenshi combined with the fact the PCs and not the WRP finished second here means PC votes will determine this. And an automatic assumption cannot be made they will go to the UCP that has shown itself to be more WRP then PC.
Calgary-Falconridge - UCP	This is a new seat carved out of three others. However, the numbers probably favour the UCP. There was weak support for Nenshi here, making it one of the few areas North of Glenmore trail where he was weak. While Nenshi isn't running, he has worked closely with the NDP for delivery of new transit and transportation infrastructure and generally enjoys strong support from progressive voters. The NDP need to tap into his support base if they hope to make a breakthrough and hold in Calgary.
Calgary-McCall - UCP	This seat was held by the Liberals for several years under now MP Darshan Kang. There was a stronger then normal independent candidate in 2015 and the Liberals also had a strong showing. This seat will be hard to predict. I think it will all come down to Federal interference
Calgary-North East - Too Close to Call	Unpredictable. The seat is a combination of Calgary-MacKay-Nose Hill, Calgary-Northern Hills, and Calgary McCall. There is high likelihood of local politics within the community playing a role in determining the outcome.
Calgary Peigan - NDP	Carved out of the old Calgary-Fort riding and part of the Calgary-Hays riding. Hays was held by former Calgary Alderman and PC leadership contestant Ric McIver, while Fort was taken by former Alderman and current Finance Minister Joe Ceci. The decision of Ceci not to contest the riding again is probably some indication. Though the NDP are fielding a strong candidate in Joe Pimlott. This is another area Nenshi has enjoyed strong support and approval. The stronger PC vs WRP support here may bode well for the NDP.
Calgary Beddington - Too Close to Call	The NDP took this seat with 36.9% in 2015, despite the name change its boundaries remain largely intact. The seat was held by Karen McPherson who crossed the floor to the AB Party. The UCP had to boot candidate Randy Kerr after his connection to the UCP kamikazi campaign but replaced him with stronger candidate Josephine Phon. There was a sharp divide in this riding between PC and WRP, and while Nenshi enjoys moderate support in the region, it has also elected Sean Chu to Council who has shown a strong conservative perspective. The PC vote will determine this riding, if they support the NDP or stay home the UCP will be hard pressed to take this seat. Kenney needs to motivate former PC voters to support the UCP despite its more social conservative leanings.
Calgary-Bow - NDP	Controversial NDP MLA Deborah Drevor who spent some time as an independent before being welcomed back to the NDP caucus is seeking re-election. She won the seat with only 34.5% of the vote. The seat was held by longtime PC MLA Alanna Delong, but it was Byron Nelson, one time PC leadership race contender who ran in 2015. The PCs came in a clear second in this riding well ahead of the WRP, the more socially conservative views of the UCP may hurt them in this riding. Nenshi enjoys strong support here.
Calgary Edgemont - NDP	It was taken by NDP Michael Connolly with 36.4% of the vote. Connolly isn't seeking re-election instead the NDP are running former constituency assistant to Stephanie McClean, Julia Hayter. Prasad Panda will be carrying the UCP banner. The WRP did very poorly here in 2015, while the PCs did much better. The WRP and UCP are far closer on social policy than they were with the PCs. This is an area where Notley may be able to make gains among former PC voters, it is also an area that has shown support and approval for Nenshi.
Calgary-Foothills - UCP	Currently held by Prasad Panda who has shifted to Calgary-Edgemont. Former PC MLA Jason Luan will be carrying the UCP banner into this race. This seat was held by late Premier Jim Prentice. Panda won it in a by-election in 2015. The NDP only garnered 25.7% of the vote while the PCs got 21.67. The decision of Panda not to pursue this seat again is interesting in light of the redrawn lines. It was a strong PC seat historically.
Calgary-North - NDP	Wile the NDP took this seat with 38% of the vote, the Liberal candidate here did a little better then average  and took nearly 6% of the vote. The PCs came in a strong second with the WRP trailing. This is another seat which will be determined by how the PC vote splits up. With Premier Notley's numbers in Calgary on the rise this may be a hold for the NDP. The NDP have fielded a strong candidate in Kelly Mandryk who has worked in the finance and oil & gas industry.
Calgary-North West - NDP	There has been a historically strong progressive vote in this riding which coalesced around Jansen to allow her to beat the WRP in 2012 and again in 2015. Her decision not to run probably increased the chances of an NDP hold, as her opponents would have been more motivated to show up, and traditional NDP voters may not have supported her. The decision of the Freedom Conservative party and Alberta Party to run candidates her may hurt the UCP.
Calgary-West - UCP	Mike Ellis won the riding with 46.8 under the PC banner in 2015. While there is a historically strong progressive vote here, Ellis may be able to hold onto it as a former PC MLA. However, if the UCP were to get surprised in Calgary this might be a seat that it happens in.
Calgary-Acadia - UCP	NDP won with only 34% of the vote. The progressive vote in Calgary can somewhat be measured by approval and support for Calgary Mayor Naheed Nenshi. Nenshi got very low support in this section of the city, with parts of Acadia being the only part north of Glenmore trail that showed major disapproval of Nenshi.
Calgary-Fish Creek - UCP	Richard Gotfried was elected here in 2015 with 32.9% of the vote as a PC MLA. The WRP took 29.6, even allowing for some shift, the UCP will hold.
Calgary-Glenmore - UCP	The NDP won this seat with 6 votes in 2015, but the seat has had some progressive leanings in the past. It was also the site of a NDP nomination challenge that saw Jordan Stein replace Anam Kazim. It also has been held by Stephen Harper federally and shows low approval for Nenshi.
Calgary-Hays - UCP	Ric McIver held it for the PCs in 2015 and will hold it for the UCP in 2019.
Calgary-Lougheed - UCP	Jason Kenney's seat, he won it in 2017 with 71.5% of the vote.
Calgary - Shaw - UCP	NDP took it with 31% of the vote, combined WRP/PC vote is over 60%.
Calgary-South East - NDP	Currently held by Rick Fraser who was elected under the PC party before leaving the UCP to sit with the Alberta Party. Fraser is locally popular and the UCP candidate is relatively unknown. This will likely result in a vote split that allows the NDP to take the seat.
Airdrie-Cochrane - UCP	This new seat was carved out of Banff Cochrane and Airdrie, when you redistribute the numbers this seat likely would have been won by the WRP in 2015. The local NDP candidate got some attention for his young age by Jason Kenney.
Airdrie-East - UCP	Angela Pitts held off a nomination challenge and is a strong local MLA. Combined PC/WRP vote was over 60%.
Banff Kananaskis - NDP	NDP secured 43% of the vote in Banff-Cochrane in 2018. The redistribution and heavy emphasis of the NDP on tourism and indigenous issues make this a likely hold for them.
Chestermere-Strathmore - FCP	Derek took his seat with 52%, while Leela took hers with 37%. Their was also significant controversy around Leela's nomination. The redistributed seats slightly favour Leela's area over Derek's but with the votes up for grabs Derek will likely consolidate the votes he needs.
Highwood - UCP	Seat was safe WRP seat, and will likely remain a safe UCP seat. NDP got less then 20% here in 2015 despite their surge.
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills - UCP	Nathan Cooper took 53% of the vote here in 2015. Mini-Coop will likely add at least another 5 points to this.
Brooks-Medicine Hat - UCP	A majority of this riding belonged to Bob Wanner who won 38% of the vote. However, he remained extremely active following his election attending meetings all over the constituency. The seat definitely favours the UCP with the addition of Strathmore Brooks area. The misstep by UCP Michaela Glasgo regarding the carbon tax probably hurt them a bit. Remote possibility of a NDP upset here again but very remote.
Cardston-Siksika - UCP	This is going to be an interesting race with the inclusion of the FCP running a candidate and former MLA Ian Donovan running as an independent. The boundary redistribution may give the NDP a slight boost, but barring a drastic vote split it should remain a UCP seat.
Cypress-Medicine Hat - UCP	Despite his inability to do basic math, Drew Barnes should be handily re-elected here. It is interesting the the FCP and AIP couldn't manage to find a candidate here.
Lethbridge-East - NDP	NDP took this seat with 47.49% of the vote despite the Liberals taking nearly 6.4%. This should be a hold for the NDP. Maria Fitzpatrick has been a very active local MLA.
Lethbridge-West - NDP	Shannon Phillips was considered a star candidate even before the NDP wave of 2015. She ended up securing 59% of the vote. The Liberals took 3% of the vote. This should be a hold for the NDP despite Phillips missteps.
Livingstone-MacLeod - UCP	The NDP vote was 22.9% in 2015. This is a south riding were the UCP is polling through the roof. Its an easy hold for the UCP.
Taber Warner - UCP	Southern Alberta riding where the NDP got less then 20%. This is the definition of a safe UCP riding.